Author: FUTURISTIC THINKING
ABSTRACT
The abrupt shift in the economic landscape and the changes in overall human behavior, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, adversely affected most businesses. Even making others obsolete. With many livelihoods lost and income stream cut, it has become a necessity for entrepreneurs to forecast the new normal to survive the ever-changing world. Without a clear picture of the post-pandemic world yet in sight, having a futuristic mind can aid any entrepreneur to be one step ahead of many. This case study features the 11 mindsets by John Naisbitt, a bestselling author and esteemed futurist, to help anyone nurture a futuristic mind. Each mindset is supported by real-life examples to serve as a guide in applying the mindsets in different facets of life. Adapting these mindsets will serve as lenses to aid the mind in anticipating the future.
Introduction to Futuristic Thinking
Entrepreneurs have their own unique stories; a hobby that expanded, a family business that was passed down, an opportunity that was grabbed at the right time, but however an enterprise started, it always started with a vision. An entrepreneur once asked herself: “Where does it go from here? What are the possibilities? What is the potential?” These questions can all be answered through a futuristic mindset.
A futuristic mindset is having the ability to forecast the future; having a field of vision beyond the present. Just as how an entrepreneur started with a vision and worked toward those, the same mindset of looking ahead must be put in place to keep them moving forward, in whatever circumstance they might be.
With over 90,000 businesses in the Philippines that temporarily stopped operations or closed down for good as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, entrepreneurs must prioritize, more than ever, a business contingency plan. Nurturing a futuristic mindset will equip the entrepreneur in anticipating potential scenarios, thus protecting themselves from unprecedented events ensuring a sustainable and resilient business at any given time.
11 Mindsets by John Naisbitt
Predicting the future might seem daunting, or even impossible for others. Fortunately, John Naisbitt, a bestselling author and esteemed futurist, shared 11 mindsets to nurture a futuristic mind. These are concept lenses one can adapt to make better sense of forecasting the future.
The first mindset is: while many things change, most things remain constant.
Constant innovation and technological advancement has changed the way food is produced, processed and distributed to consumers: from traditional, manual-labor intensive farming practices to the emergence of alternative farming techniques such as hydroponics, a production method where plants are grown in a nutrient solution instead of soil; from traditional cooking methods such as the use of palayok (clay pots) with chopped wood to create fire to the use of electric stove, ovens and microwaves; from traditional food preparation through home cooking to the emergence of factory-processed instant food - noodles, canned goods and 3-in-1 coffee name a few.
Even with the continuous evolution in the food industry, the objective remains the same, and that is to provide food to people for physical nourishment. The only difference is how the food is produced, processed and distributed to adapt to the ever changing behavior and lifestyle of people.
In forecasting the future, one must be grounded on the essence of things; the essence of a change, a shift, a phenomenon so as not to be clouded by nonessential information. As John Naisbitt pointed out on this mindset “Whatever information is assailing you, distinguish between real and apparent change, basic shifts and fads, remembering that in the history of the world, most things remain constant.”
The second mindset is: the future is embedded in the present. As Naisbitt puts it, “It is not saying that the future will be little more than an extension of things as they are. It is saying that we find the seeds of the future on the ground, and not in the width of the sky.”
Airbnb, which revolutionized the hospitality industry, started in 2007 when the founders knew that a design conference was coming up in San Francisco and saw the fact that hotels are hard to come by at times like this. As designers themselves who can’t afford their rent, they understood the need for cheap accommodations. Fast forward to 2017, Airbnb was valued at $31 billion. At the early stages of the company, when technology was slowly on the rise and affordable accommodations for travellers were nowhere to be found, these “seeds” have contributed to the success of a $31 billion company which shifted the tourism and hospitality industry.
It is not a stroll in the park to search for seeds in the present to understand the future. Just like in the first mindset, one must be conscious in filtering and receiving information as well as in keeping a wide perspective. Naisbitt points out that “to do that successfully, we need to keep a distance and a clear eye.”
The third mindset is to focus on the score of the game. To put it simply, the “score of the game” are the standards to which accuracy and relevance of information can be measured against. Similar to the first two mindsets, this mindset is a lense in filtering relevant information to make sense of the future. Take for example the rise of diet fads. Due to the emergence of a sedentary lifestyle, diet fads sprung here and there to address the issue. No-carb diets, juice diets, intermittent fasting, diet pills, are just some of the so-called solutions invented. However, as with any fad, these solutions come and go if they’re not grounded on facts. Deep diving into the issue, the goal is to keep the body healthy and fit, and to stick with the facts to achieve this outcome is the score of the game.
As with any business, if a businessman does not know his company’s current and past performance, there will be no factual basis in forecasting future performance and no solid foundation for plans moving forward.
The fourth mindset is: understanding how powerful it is not to have to be right. Always wanting to be right puts barriers to learning and growing, and cultivates a close mind that hinders the development of a futuristic mind. In 2013, the former Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago filed Senate Bill No. 1573 of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness act. “It called for the creation of a national health strategy during pandemics.” The former senator deemed the bill critical as the other parts of the world are battling MERS virus. Unfortunately this bill remained pending at the committee level and was stripped of the chance to save the country from the COVID-19 pandemic which struck the world 7 years after. She saw puzzle pieces of information that formed a picture of the future and acted on it, even if others did not see or agree to it.
As emphasized by Naisbitt, “What is right, not who is right, stays the standard: in private life, in business, and in politics.”
The fifth mindset is to see the future as a picture puzzle. Going back to the second mindset, the future is made of the seeds of the present, however these varieties of seeds do not always bear the same fruits, or show clear connections. Like solving a puzzle, one must have a clear eye and an intuitive approach in making sense of the pieces for a whole picture to emerge.
Going back to the Airbnb example, the random puzzle pieces - lack of hotel accommodations during peak season, the founder’s inability to pay their rent, an Industrial Design Conference in San Francisco - was put together by the founders Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia, thus the creation of a powerful and innovative business model that changed the hospitality landscape.
The sixth mindset is: don’t get so far ahead of the parade that people don’t know you’re in it. In forecasting the future, going too far into the unknown will result in more room for guessing and assumptions, causing the intended audience to disregard or even reject the vision, forecast, or message.
Take Google Glass as an example. It was a hands-free computer device, in the form of eyeglasses developed by the tech giant, Google. However, the product was not embraced by consumers upon its launch in 2013 and was considered a product flop. One of the main reasons why it failed was due to the inability of the consumers to find a use for it. The product itself is a sophisticated piece of technology, however, seemed too far ahead of its time for people to have any use for it.
The seventh mindset is: resistance to change falls if benefits are real. To many, it is impossible to paint a clear picture of the future or the unknown, therefore, resistance to futuristic ideas and possibilities may be common. Naisbitt points out that “people usually embrace change when they perceive that it is to their benefit.” In proposing changes, new ideas or strategies, it is important to make the benefits transparent to the audience for them to embrace the proposed change.
The effects of COVID-19 can be a great example of instilling change. Due to the serious health hazards brought about by COVID-19, everyone around the world adapted to a new way of living wherein wearing masks and face shields, working from home and regular sanitation of objects are just some of the widespread changes. There’s great benefit to people if they embraced these changes, as opposed to the risks one will face if resisting these protocols.
The eighth mindset is that things that we expect to happen always happen more slowly. As Naibitt puts it “As with human species and other manifestations of nature, almost all change is evolutionary, not revolutionary.” In relation to the second mindset, the future can be anticipated in finding seeds in the present. These seeds will take time to grow and will undergo an evolution before it’s fully grown, but the fact remains that it started from a specific seed before it grew into a tree.
Take the mobile phone evolution as an example. The concept started in 1973, when Martin Cooper, an American engineer, demonstrated a hand-held device prototype that weighed more than two pounds. In the 1990s, Nokia was the leading cell phone company in the world, introducing a more portable device that catered to a wider audience, up until the rise of Apple when it launched its first iPhone in 2007. Fast forward to today, mobile phone brands can’t be counted with our hands, and most individuals own more than one mobile device.
The ninth mindset is: you don’t get results by solving problems but by exploiting opportunities. In forecasting the future, keeping an eye out for opportunities deals with possibilities and potential, contrary to focusing on problems, which essentially deals with yesterday. To nurture a futuristic mind, one must practice looking ahead and seeking opportunities.
In April 2020, 7.3 million Filipinos were jobless, mostly as an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. To date, this is the highest unemployment rate recorded in the Philippines. Fortunately, opportunity seekers turned this misfortune as an opportunity to explore and create home-based online food businesses, catalyzing a shift in the food business scene. By catching the opportunity at the right time, new jobs were created, emerging needs were addressed and new skills were discovered at a time of adversity.
The tenth mindset is: don’t add unless you subtract. In essence, one must focus only on the important factors, variables, or information to avoid being clouded with too much unnecessary and irrelevant information. In forecasting the future, say for a travel agency enterprise, the entrepreneur must be keen in identifying news, data, information and trends that are relevant to the tourism industry and subscribe only to a selected few. Critical data that may be considered are ordinances mandated on tourist spots, travel health protocols, shifts in consumer priorities and behaviors to name a few. Subscribing to a reasonable amount of information, as opposed to consuming every information without filter, will allow for a more streamlined analysis and decision-making.
The eleventh and final mindset is: don’t forget the ecology of technology. The essence of this mindset is to understand the field of interest - a trend, product, service, etc. - in its totality; its essence, intrinsic value, and its relation with other factors. Mobile phones are a great example to demonstrate this mindset. In essence, mobile phones are meant to connect people, however, with so much technological innovations that have shaped the mobile phone of today, people are getting more and more disconnected with people they're in close proximity with, dismissing the true essence of mobile phones. Technology was only a means to create a solution which aims to connect people, but the technological advancement has overshadowed the essential value that mobile phones were created for.
Seizing the Opportunities of the Future
These mindsets presented by John Naisbitt serve as lenses to aid the mind in anticipating the future. As a clear picture of a post-pandemic world is not yet evident, a futuristic thinker can be one step ahead of the many. For entrepreneurs whose endeavors have become obsolete, having the ability to paint the new normal will provide a gold mine of opportunities to grab and eventually grow.
Disclaimer: This content may only be used for educational purposes only
